Halden reportsFinance & capital
Halden report · Finance & capitalWhat is eating the reserves?
The casualty back book: at Halden, US claims from the 2022 to 2024 years are settling £23m above what was reserved.
CoVi · ReservingFictitious
Capital and reserving
Halden's reserves and the capital behind them, built by Context Visualised. Figures at 30 September 2026.
- £955mNet reservesUp £35m this quarter
- 46%IBNR share£440m not yet reported
- 45%Long-tail casualtyDuration 4.4 years
- +£12mPrior-year development, net adverse£23m adverse casualty, £11m released property
What the reserves are made of
- Case reservesClaims already reported, set by claims handlers£420m44%
- IBNRIncurred but not reported, estimated by actuarial£440m46%
- Premium provisionFuture claims on cover not yet expired£95m10%
Back book vs front book
By year of accountBack book (2024 and earlier) £425m · 45% · front book (2025 and 2026) £530m · 55%
- 2022 & priorBack book · 16% IBNR£95m▲ +£4m adverse
- 2023Back book · 32% IBNR£120m▲ +£9m adverse
- 2024Back book · 43% IBNR£210m▲ +£11m adverse
- 2025Front book · 62% IBNR£290m▼ £12m released
- 2026Front book · 49% IBNR£240mNo development yet
- Case
- IBNR
- Premium provision
Long tail vs short tail
- CasualtyLong tail£430m
- PropertyShort tail£210m
- SpecialtyShort tail£150m
- ReinsuranceShort tail£95m
- CyberShort tail£70m
What moved the reserves
Q3 2026 · £m- Opening, 30 June£920m
- New reserves on 2026 business+£58mEarning through of the 2026 year
- Large losses+£31mHurricane, Jebel Ali fire, civil unrest (net)
- Prior years: casualty+£23mUS E&S and D&O, 2022 to 2024 years: social inflation
- Prior years: property−£11m2025 property claims settling below reserve
- Claims paid−£66mCash out of the reserves
- Closing, 30 September£955m
Scale £850m to £1,040m.
What’s eating the reserves
- £23mCasualty back book: US E&S and D&O claims from 2022 to 2024 are settling higher than reserved. Social inflation, not a one-off.
- £31mNew large losses in the quarter, led by the US hurricane, net of reinsurance.
- £440mIBNR now 46% of reserves, mostly on 2025 and 2026 casualty: the cost of this tail is still to show.
Reserve risk in the capital
£73m22% of the £330m ultimate SCR
Casualty 70% · specialty and property 18% · cyber and reinsurance 12%. Reserve risk is the part of capital most driven by the back book.
If the casualty trend continues
- Casualty reserves +5%−£21mcoverage 147%
- Casualty reserves +10%−£43mcoverage 142%
- Casualty reserves +15% (ORSA stress)−£65mcoverage 137%
Solvency coverage after each step, from 152%. The ORSA stress sits just above the 135% appetite line.
Reserving governance
Reserves are set at best estimate under the Reserving policy, signed off by the Reserving committee (21 Oct) and reviewed by the Audit committee (5 Nov). The casualty actual vs expected KRI is amber at 7%, and incident INC-028 on fronted claims data is still open.
The first view shows what the reserves are made of. The second shows what moved them this quarter, and the third the capital they need.
Source: Quarterly Solvency Return Q3 2026, reserving committee pack, Lloyd’s Capital Return.
What it tells us
What it tells us this quarter
- £955m
Net reserves rose £35m in Q3 to £955m, and 46% of them, £440m, is IBNR: claims incurred but not yet reported.
- £73m
Reserve risk is £73m, 22% of the £330m ultimate SCR, and casualty drives 70% of it.
- 137%
If casualty reserves rise 15%, the ORSA stress, coverage falls from 152% to 137%, just above the 135% appetite line.
What we did
What we did about it
From Halden's action log.
- ACT-029
Agree claims service levels with the UAE fronting partner (INC-028)
- Owner
- Head of Claims
- Policy (approved by)
- Claims management · Underwriting committee
- Due
- 31 Oct 2026
Actions are listed under the policy they sit in. The action log does not record a deciding committee.
Sources
Where the numbers come from
Reserves follow Lloyd's quarterly solvency return (QSR), the annual reserving return (RRA) and the statement of actuarial opinion (SAO). Reserve risk in the capital follows the Lloyd's Capital Return.
- Board dataQuarterly Solvency Return Q3 2026, reserving committee pack, Lloyd’s Capital Return
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