The capital model and the risk register, read together.
You own the capital, the reserves, the ALM and the numbers in the ORSA. CoVi Analytics reads the risk register into the SCR split you already send to Lloyd's. You see what is moving reserves and capital, with the risks behind each movement.
Halden is a fictitious Lloyd's managing agent. We run it in CoVi Analytics and publish its reports one at a time.
Finance view30 Sep 2026
Do we hold enough?
Solvency today152%Capital vs requirement
Worst stress116%Hurricane and market shock
The problem
The capital model says how much. The risk register says why. They rarely meet.
The capital model and the risk register are built by different teams, in different tools, on different timetables. When reserves move, the explanation arrives after the quarter closes. Then the risk team asks for the same numbers in another format. The PRA's 2026 priorities letter (15 January 2026) warns that optimistic model assumptions could understate the SCR.
Today
The risk register in one tool, the capital model in another
Reserve movements explained after the quarter closes
Stress results seen once a year, in the ORSA
Returns at risk spotted the week they are due
What you need
Each class of risk with its share of the SCR
Reserve movements next to the risks that drive them
Stresses and appetite on one page
Returns at risk flagged with the incident behind them
How we solve it
Start with the SCR split you send to Lloyd's. Then see what is moving it.
Halden's finance view opens on capital, then reserves, stresses and ALM, each with the risks behind it.
Halden · Finance · 30 Sep 2026
Do we hold enough, and will the numbers land on time?
ExploreOpen insurance risk for its split. Open the reverse stress test for the management actions.
Capital requirement by risk type
£330m ultimate SCR, from the LCR for 2027, submitted 2 October · requirement £446m with the 35% uplift
Shares of the £330m SCR.
Premium26%
Catastrophe24%
Reserve22% (£73m)
Lapse1%
Accumulation1%
Counterparty£30m · 9% of the SCR
Operational£30m · 9% of the SCR
Market£26m · 8% of the SCR
StrategicNot capitalised
Capital over the plan
Capital held vs requirement (ECA) · plan years from the ORSA
2026 actualCapital £678m · requirement £446m152%
2027 planCapital £712m · requirement £481m148%
2028 planCapital £760m · requirement £507m150%
2029 planCapital £818m · requirement £528m155%
ExploreOpen the casualty back book to see what is driving it and what it would cost if it continues.
What the reserves are made of
£955m net · up £35m this quarter
Case reserves: claims already reported£420m · 44%
IBNR: incurred but not reported£440m · 46%
Premium provision: cover not yet expired£95m · 10%
By year of account
Back book (2024 and earlier) 45% · front book 55%
2022 & prior£95mBack book · 16% IBNR
2023£120mBack book · 32% IBNR
2024£210mBack book · 43% IBNR
2025£290mFront book · 62% IBNR
2026£240mFront book · 49% IBNR
Prior-year development, Q3 2026
Net reserves £920m at 30 June, £955m at 30 September
Prior years, property2025 property claims settling below reserve−£11mreleased
Net prior-year development+£12m
ExploreOpen a currency to see its assets, liabilities and duration gap.
Invested assets£1,050m
Net technical provisions£955m
Assets cover liabilities110%
Duration by currency
Tolerance ±0.5 yrs for each currency
Assets, years
Liabilities, years
Gap outside tolerance
Scale 0 to 5 years.
ExploreOpen the return at risk to see why.
Reporting calendar
1 at risk · dates as planned at 30 Sep 2026
September 2026
Wed30Managing agent annual accountsCompanies House · Chief Financial Officer✓ Submitted
October 2026
Fri2LCR 2027 (capital setting)Lloyd's · Head of CapitalFeeds Risk taxonomy (SCR split), ORSA✓ Submitted
Wed14Corporation tax instalmentHMRC · Head of TaxIn progress
Wed21QSR and QAD, Q3Lloyd's · Chief Financial OfficerFeeds Investments & ALM, Capital & reservingIn progress
Wed21Canadian quarterly returnLloyd's · Chief Financial OfficerNot started
Fri23Lloyd's Catastrophe Model quarterly returnLloyd's · Head of Exposure ManagementFeeds ORSA stress tests, Risk appetite (cat KRIs)In progress
Sat31Insurance premium tax return, Q3HMRC · Head of TaxIn progress
November 2026
Sat7VAT return, Q3HMRC · Head of TaxNot started
Sun15Quarterly prudential return (Dubai)DFSA · Dubai Compliance OfficerFeeds Business overview (Dubai)Not started
Tue1Realistic Disaster ScenariosLloyd's · Head of Exposure ManagementFeeds Large claims (RDS gauge), Risk appetiteNot started
February 2027
Sat27Complaints return, H2 2026FCA · Head of ComplianceFeeds ComplaintsNot started
March 2027
Thu11QSR, QAD, ASR, AAD and ASB, year endLloyd's · Chief Financial OfficerFeeds Investments & ALM, Capital & reservingNot started
Fri26Reserving Return Annual (RRA)Lloyd's · Chief ActuaryFeeds Capital & reservingNot started
Wed31Syndicate annual accounts and actuarial opinionLloyd's · Chief Financial OfficerFeeds Capital & reservingNot started
Halden is fictitious. Source: capital and reserving Q3 2026, risk taxonomy (LCR), ORSA 2026, investments and ALM, reporting calendar
Reserves · prior years
Casualty back book: £23m adverse
US E&S and D&O claims from the 2022 to 2024 years are settling higher than reserved. Social inflation, not a one-off.
Q3 movement+£23m
Reserve risk£73m
Of the SCR22%
Reserve risk by class: casualty 70% · specialty and property 18% · cyber and reinsurance 12%.
Casualty actual vs expected claimsTarget band · ▲ from 4%7%Approaching
−10510
If the casualty trend continues
Casualty reserves +5%147%−£21m
Casualty reserves +10%142%−£43m
Casualty reserves +15% (ORSA stress)137%−£65m
Solvency coverage after each step, from 152%. The ORSA stress sits just above the 135% appetite line.
Related risks
#RR-07Long-tail casualty reserve inadequacyResidual rating C4, medium
#RR-03Social inflation in US casualtyResidual rating C4, medium
Rating shown is residual risk: likelihood A to E, impact 1 to 5.
Governance
Reserves are set at best estimate under the Reserving policy, signed off by the Reserving committee (21 Oct) and reviewed by the Audit committee (5 Nov).
Source: capital and reserving Q3 2026, risk appetite KRIs, ORSA 2026
ORSA 2026 · reverse stress test
What would break us?
Net loss to 100%£232m
Coverage today152%
Worst stress116%
It takes a £232m net loss to bring coverage to 100%. The most plausible route: two major US hurricanes in one season, followed by a 15% casualty reserve strengthening. We judge this around a 1-in-400 year outcome.
Management actions if stressed
Buy a fifth cat layer£50m xs £275m, about £6m premium+9 pts
Slow US E&S growthHold 2027 casualty premium flat+5 pts
Call additional capitalFrom members and third-party capital on 9147+12 pts
Reduce distributionsRetain 2026 profit+6 pts
Points of solvency coverage each action restores.
ORSA sign-off
21 Oct 2026Reserving committee signs off reserves
4 Nov 2026Risk and capital committee reviews the draft
12 Nov 2026Board approves the ORSA
30 Nov 2026Submitted to Lloyd's and the PRA
Source: ORSA 2026
Investments · asset-liability matching
USD assets and liabilities
Assets£600m
Liabilities£560m
Covered107%
Asset duration3.1 yrs
Liability duration3.4 yrs
Duration gap−0.3 yrs
Within the ±0.5 year tolerance.
Source: investments and ALM, quarterly asset data at 30 Sep 2026
Investments · asset-liability matching
GBP assets and liabilities
Assets£230m
Liabilities£200m
Covered115%
Asset duration2.6 yrs
Liability duration2.4 yrs
Duration gap+0.2 yrs
Within the ±0.5 year tolerance.
Source: investments and ALM, quarterly asset data at 30 Sep 2026
Investments · asset-liability matching
EUR assets and liabilities
Assets£120m
Liabilities£110m
Covered109%
Asset duration2.2 yrs
Liability duration2.6 yrs
Duration gap−0.4 yrs
Within the ±0.5 year tolerance.
Source: investments and ALM, quarterly asset data at 30 Sep 2026
Investments · asset-liability matching
CAD assets and liabilities
Assets£50m
Liabilities£45m
Covered111%
Asset duration2.8 yrs
Liability duration2.7 yrs
Duration gap+0.1 yrs
Within the ±0.5 year tolerance.
Source: investments and ALM, quarterly asset data at 30 Sep 2026
Investments · asset-liability matching
AED assets and liabilities
Assets£50m
Liabilities£40m
Covered125%
Asset duration1.4 yrs
Liability duration1.8 yrs
Duration gap−0.4 yrs
AED duration gapTarget band · ▼ from −0.3 yrs−0.4 yrsWithin
−1−0.50.51
Gulf sukuk and term deposits back the Gulf property and energy claims. The gap sits inside the ±0.5 year tolerance.
Rating shown is residual risk: likelihood A to E, impact 1 to 5.
Source: investments and ALM, quarterly asset data at 30 Sep 2026
Reporting calendar · Lloyd's
QMA and QMB, Q3
⚠ At risk
DueWed 4 November 2026
RegulatorLloyd's
OwnerChief Financial Officer
FeedsBusiness overview, Plan by product, Large claims, Capital & reserving
Two binder bordereaux arrived late (INC-033); estimates in use.
Incident behind it
INC-033OpenBinder bordereaux received six weeks lateTwo coverholders missed bordereaux deadlines, so Q3 reserving and the QMA used estimates.Q3 reserving used estimated data for 2 binders · opened 19 Sep 2026 · Not notifiedActions ACT-036
Actions
ACT-036Chase late binder bordereaux (INC-033)Head of Delegated Authority · due 15 Oct 2026Open
Source: reporting calendar, incident log, action log at 30 Sep 2026
The exchange
This is a deal between your finance team and your risk team. CoVi Analytics is where it happens.
What your risk team asks of your finance team
Share each return once it is submitted, so the view uses the numbers Lloyd's already has.
Record reserve movements with their reason, as the reserving committee agrees them.
Share stress and reverse stress results with the risk team as they are run.
What your finance team gets back
The risk register read against the SCR split you already report.
Reserve movements shown with the risks that drive them, before the committee asks.
Returns at risk flagged with the incident behind them, weeks before the deadline.
How it works.
1We start from the returns you have already sent.
The SBF, the LCR and the quarterly returns, plus your reserving and stress results.
2We pair each risk with its capital.
The SCR split sits next to your register, and each reserve movement next to the risk behind it.
3Finance updates it as the numbers move.
Your team shares each return once it is submitted, and records reserve movements with their reason.
How we think differently
How we think differently
Capital is the risk register in pounds.
We pair each class of risk with its share of the SCR. A director sees where the capital goes and which risks sit inside it.
We start from numbers already accepted.
We start from returns already sent to Lloyd's and the regulator: the business forecast, the Lloyd's Capital Return and the quarterly returns. You signed these numbers off once. Nobody re-keys them, and nobody re-argues them.
Movements come with their reason.
At Halden, the £23m casualty back book sits next to the social inflation risk that drives it.
Proof
See how Halden reads its capital.
Each report starts with a question a CFO or chief actuary asks. Each one ends with what we did about the answer.
What Halden did: the fix sits with delegated authority, not finance. The Head of Delegated Authority owns ACT-036, to chase the late binder bordereaux.
One email a month, plus an alert for each new report.
Check your inbox and confirm to start following Halden.You're following Halden.
The first "This month at Halden" arrives on the first Tuesday of the month.
Built by Context Visualised, in London since 2016, Lloyd's Lab Cohort 2. Founded by Waleed Sarwar, former interim Head of Risk at Liberty Mutual, Markel and Bupa, who worked on Solvency II policy at the Bank of England.
Sources (4)
PRA, "Insurance Supervision: 2026 priorities", Dear CEO letter, 15 January 2026. Optimistic internal model assumptions could understate SCRs; boards should "challenge management's assumptions robustly". www.bankofengland.co.uk
PRA SS19/16 "Solvency II: ORSA", updated May 2026 (the update came within PS13/26, the third-country branches policy statement; effective 31 December 2026). The ORSA statement was updated in May 2026; paras 4.1 and 4.3 on board ownership are unchanged. www.bankofengland.co.uk
Lloyd's Capital Guidance, April 2026, and LCR 2027 YOA instructions. Syndicates submit the SCR through the Lloyd's Capital Return, broken down by risk type. assets.lloyds.com
Lloyd's SBF and QMA. The syndicate business forecast (SBF) sets out each syndicate's plan for the coming year. The quarterly monitoring return (QMA) reports results to Lloyd's each quarter. Both are returns a syndicate has already sent to Lloyd's. www.lloyds.com
Cookies
We use essential cookies to run this site. With your permission, we also use analytics cookies to see which pages people read, and marketing cookies to see which LinkedIn campaigns bring people here. Cookie policy