Halden reportsRisk
Halden report · RiskWhat is coming?
Twelve emerging risks at Halden: 4 already in the register, 5 on a watch list, 3 on the horizon.
CoVi · Emerging risksFictitious
What's coming
Halden's emerging risk radar, built by Context Visualised.
- 3On the horizon
- 5Watch list
- 4In the register
- Top rightUnderwriting & claims
- RightLiability & legal
- Bottom rightTechnology & cyber
- Bottom leftClimate & environment
- LeftGeopolitical & macro
- Top leftRegulatory
- In the register
- Watch list
- On the horizon
Closer to the centre means sooner; bubble size shows potential impact. Filled indigo bubbles are already in the risk register, teal are on the watch list, and pale ones are on the horizon. Select a bubble for detail.
- Scan
Horizon scanning every month: claims and underwriting trends, regulators, Lloyd's, market research, legal developments and ideas from staff.
Emerging risk working group, monthly - Assess
Each candidate is scored on potential impact, time horizon, velocity and how confident we are, and mapped to the books it could hit.
Risk function with class underwriters - Decide
Dismiss it, keep it on the horizon, put it on the watch list, or act now.
Working group recommends; CRO decides - Respond
Scenario tests, underwriting guidance, wording changes, aggregate limits or capital, proportionate to the score.
Risk owner named for every watch list item - Promote
Once it starts to crystallise, it moves into the risk register with KRIs, controls and appetite links.
Trigger: first losses, a measurable KRI, or a named control - Report
Quarterly to the Risk & capital committee and annually in the ORSA, with movement since last quarter.
Risk & capital committee, ORSA
The approach sits under principle 3 of the Risk management policy. Promoted risks get KRIs on the appetite board and controls on the controls board, and they are reviewed through the committee cascade. Social inflation is the worked example: it started on the watch list, crystallised in the Texas verdict (LL-26-022) and now sits in the register as IR-01.3.
Closer to the centre means sooner, and bubble size shows potential impact. Filled bubbles are in the risk register, teal ones are on the watch list and pale ones are on the horizon.
Source: emerging risk working group log and risk register at 30 Sep 2026.
1 · Liability & legal
Social inflation and litigation funding
- NowTime horizon
- SeverePotential impact
- Fast · RisingVelocity and trend
- In the registerStatus
Books exposed
US E&S casualty, D&O and financial lines
Signals we watch
Verdict sizes, litigation funding volumes, claims severity trend
Our response
Repricing US trucking at renewal (ACT-041); limits reduced on US E&S
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Promoted to the registerIR-01.3 Social inflation in US casualty
2 · Technology & cyber
Systemic cloud or cyber outage
- 1 to 3 yrsTime horizon
- SeverePotential impact
- Fast · RisingVelocity and trend
- In the registerStatus
Books exposed
Cyber large corporate, Cyber SME, Property D&F (silent cyber)
Signals we watch
Cloud concentration, outage frequency, war exclusion take-up
Our response
Event limits tightened; cyber war wording refreshed
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
Promoted to the registerIR-03.2 Systemic cyber accumulation
3 · Geopolitical & macro
Gulf escalation and shipping chokepoints
- NowTime horizon
- HighPotential impact
- Fast · RisingVelocity and trend
- Watch listStatus
Books exposed
Marine cargo, Offshore energy, Political violence & terror, MENA property
Signals we watch
Strait transit volumes, war risk rates, regional incident counts
Our response
Aggregates monitored weekly; MENA growth paused for PV
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
4 · Climate & environment
Secondary perils: convective storm and wildfire
- NowTime horizon
- SignificantPotential impact
- Medium · RisingVelocity and trend
- In the registerStatus
Books exposed
Property D&F, Property binders
Signals we watch
Secondary peril losses against model, frequency trend
Our response
Climate-adjusted catastrophe view in pricing
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
Promoted to the registerIR-03.3 Climate-driven loss frequency and severity
5 · Underwriting & claims
AI-generated claims fraud
- 1 to 3 yrsTime horizon
- SignificantPotential impact
- Fast · RisingVelocity and trend
- Watch listStatus
Books exposed
Property binders, Cyber SME, Professional indemnity
Signals we watch
Doctored document detections, fraud referral rate
Our response
Fraud screening upgraded for image and document checks
Owner: Head of Claims
Owner: Head of Claims
6 · Liability & legal
Liability from AI errors (silent AI)
- 1 to 3 yrsTime horizon
- HighPotential impact
- Medium · RisingVelocity and trend
- Watch listStatus
Books exposed
Professional indemnity, D&O and financial lines, Cyber large corporate
Signals we watch
AI-related notifications, market AI exclusions, wording gaps
Our response
Wordings review of AI cover across PI and D&O
Owner: Head of Product
Owner: Head of Product
7 · Geopolitical & macro
Private credit stress and insolvencies
- 1 to 3 yrsTime horizon
- SignificantPotential impact
- Medium · StableVelocity and trend
- Watch listStatus
Books exposed
D&O and financial lines, Professional indemnity
Signals we watch
Default rates, covenant breaches, insolvency filings
Our response
Underwriting guidance on highly indebted insureds
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
8 · Regulatory
AI regulation and DFSA rule changes
- 1 to 3 yrsTime horizon
- ModeratePotential impact
- Medium · RisingVelocity and trend
- Watch listStatus
Books exposed
All lines (operational)
Signals we watch
EU AI Act milestones, DFSA consultations, Lloyd's guidance
Our response
AI use register maintained; regulatory change tracker
Owner: Head of Compliance
Owner: Head of Compliance
9 · Climate & environment
Climate litigation
- 3 to 5 yrsTime horizon
- HighPotential impact
- Slow · RisingVelocity and trend
- In the registerStatus
Books exposed
Professional indemnity, D&O and financial lines
Signals we watch
Climate cases filed, outcomes against corporates
Our response
Climate exclusions reviewed; emerging risk monitoring
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Promoted to the registerIR-02.3 Climate litigation
10 · Liability & legal
PFAS 'forever chemicals' liability
- 3 to 5 yrsTime horizon
- HighPotential impact
- Slow · RisingVelocity and trend
- On the horizonStatus
Books exposed
US E&S casualty, D&O and financial lines
Signals we watch
US regulatory limits, mass tort filings
Our response
Exposure review of US casualty book
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
Owner: Chief Underwriting Officer
11 · Climate & environment
Severe space weather
- 5+ yrsTime horizon
- SeverePotential impact
- Slow · StableVelocity and trend
- On the horizonStatus
Books exposed
Property D&F, Cyber large corporate, Offshore energy
Signals we watch
Solar cycle forecasts, grid resilience studies
Our response
Scenario included in reverse stress test
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
Owner: Head of Exposure Management
12 · Technology & cyber
Quantum break of encryption
- 5+ yrsTime horizon
- HighPotential impact
- Slow · RisingVelocity and trend
- On the horizonStatus
Books exposed
Cyber large corporate, Cyber SME
Signals we watch
Quantum milestones, post-quantum standard adoption
Our response
Monitor; post-quantum readiness in IT roadmap
Owner: Chief Information Security Officer
Owner: Chief Information Security Officer
What it tells us
What it tells us this quarter
- £14m
Social inflation shows the path: it started on the watch list, crystallised in a £14m Texas trucking verdict, and now sits in the register.
- 3
Three risks are already here, and two of them move fast: social inflation and escalation in the Gulf.
- 3
Three risks rate severe: social inflation, a systemic cloud or cyber outage, and severe space weather.
What we did
What we did about it
The action named on the radar, from Halden's action log.
- ACT-041
Reprice US trucking accounts at renewal
- Owner
- Chief Underwriting Officer
- Policy (approved by)
- Underwriting · Board
- Due
- 30 Nov 2026
Actions are listed under the policy they sit in. The action log does not record a deciding committee.
Sources
Where the numbers come from
Candidates come from monthly horizon scanning. The radar reports to the Risk & capital committee each quarter, and once a year in the ORSA.
- Board dataemerging risk working group log and risk register at 30 Sep 2026
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Related reports
One email a month: "This month at Halden". Email address only.
Halden is fictitious. Its numbers are illustrative.